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>> IN LESS THAN TWO WEEKS, MINNESOTA'S POLITICAL LANDSCAPE COULD LOOK VERY DIFFERENT.

WE'VE CONVENED AN EXPERT POLITICAL PANEL TONIGHT.

ON THE LEFT, DFLer JEFF HAYDEN, FORMER MAJORITY LEADER IN THE SENATE.

AND FORMER LEGISLATIVE STAFFER AND NOW AN ATTORNEY IN PRIVATE PRACTICE.

REPUBLICANS JOINING US TONIGHT, AMY FREDERICKSON IS A FORMER STATE SENATE MAJORITY LEADER, NOW A LOBBYIST, AND BRIAN McCLUNG, FORMER SPOKESPERSON FOR GOVERNOR PAWLENTY AND LONG TIME CAPITOL OBSERVER.

WELCOME, ONE AND ALL.

SENATOR FREDERICKSON, I'M WONDERING, WHEN IT ACCOMMODATION TO THE FAMILY OF HARPER MOYSKI, CLAIMING A SPEAKER LIED ON A GUN PACKAGE, DOES THAT HAVE LEGS FOR VOTERS?

>> IT CERTAINLY HAS LGS.

THE ANNUNCIATION EVENT WAS TRAGIC.

THE FAMILY OF PARENTS OF A HILD THAT WAS LOST SPEAKING OUT AND SAYING, NOW -- NOW, WE DON'T KNOW WHAT WENT ON IN THE ROOM, RIGHT?

WE DON'T KNOW THE CONVERSATION.

AND SOMETIMES I'LL SEE AS A LOBBYIST, SOMETIMES PARENTS SAY LOBBYIST, SOMETIMES PARENTS S SAY -- I'M NOT SAYING -- WE DON'T KNOW WHAT HAPPENED.

BUT FOR THEM TO HAVE THE COURAGE -- AND THEY HAVE NOT POLITICIZED THIS AT ALL.

PREVIOUSLY.

FOR THEM TO SY, WE'VE -- WE FELT SHE LIED TO US AND SHE'S CONTINUING TO LIE ABOUT TIS, WE EXPECTED A VOTE ON THE FLOOR, THAT'S IS A BIG MOVE, ESPECIALLY IN SORT OF SUBURBAN AREAS WHERE I THINK THERE'S BEEN THIS PUSH AND PULL ON THE ECONOMY AND GANG VIOLENCE AND FRAUD.

THIS IS A WALKDOWN FOR THE SUBURBS SUBU SUBURBS.

>> YOU MENTIONED SUBURBS.

BECAUSE WE HEARD THE SPEAKER THERE SAY, OH, I WANT TO PLAY IN THE SUBURBS.

I'M FROM BLOOMINGTON.

SHE'S DOING EVENTS IN EDEN PRAIRIE.

SHE TALKED ABOUT A SHOOTING IN EDINA.

ARE THE SUBURBS BACK IN PLAY?

>> THAT'S EXACTLY WHAT REPUBLICANS WERE HOPING.

THEY WERE HOPING FRAUD WOULD BE AN APPEAL TO THOSE SUBURBAN MIDDLE-AGE WOMEN.

AND THIS IS THE TYPE OF ISSUE THAT BRINGS THEM BACK INTO THE DEMOCRATIC FOLD.

GUNS IS AN ISSUE THAT SUBURBAN WOMEN HAVE BEEN FEITH ON FOR DECADES.

AND NOW TO SEE THIS ISSUE AS A WEDGE IS PROBLEMATIC FOR THE SPEAKER.

>> WELL, YEAH.

BUT AS FAR AS THE SUBURBS GO, HERE'S WHAT I AM SEEING AND HEARING WHEN I TALK TO CANDIDATES, AND PARTICULARLY CANDIDATES FOR THE STATE LEGISLATURE WHO ARE PERSONALLY OUT KNOCKING ON DOORS.

THERE ARE TWO THINGS THAT ARE REALLY RISING TO THE TOP.

ONE IS FRAUD, AND THE OTHER IS PUBLIC SAFETY.

AND WHEN YOU HAVE A SHOOTING AT A HIGH SCHOOL HOME COMING FOOTBALL GAME, THE KIND OF I'D IDYLLIC IDYL IDYLLIC SETTING, THERE'S A SHOOTING THERE, FOLLOWED UP SHORTLY BY A TERRORISM THREAT AT THE MALL OF AMERICA, THESE THINGS ARE REAL.

WE HAVE SERIOUS ISSUES TO DEAL WITH RELATIVE TO PUBLIC SAFETY IN MINNESOTA.

AND I THINK THAT BRINGS PEOPLE BACK TO REPUBLICANS WHO ARE WILLING TO TAKE ON THESE ISSUES MORE FORCEFULLY.

AND IT'S JUST, YOU KNOW, BA IN 2002, TIM PAWLENTY RAN AN AD TALKING ABOUT THE TERRORISTS ARE HERE.

AND NOW WE HAVE THIS MALL OF AMERICA TERROR THREAT.

I THINK THAT'S A SERIOUS ISSUE.

>> THESE ARE PERSONAL.

THESE ISSUES GET PERSONAL, DON'T THEY?

>> THEY GET REALLY PERSONAL.

SO, YOU KNOW, AS ONE WHO UNDERSTANDS THIS ISSUE AROUND GUN VIOLENCE WHEN YOU LOSE SOMEONE CLOSE TO YOU, AS ONE OF WHOSE KIDS WENT TO ANNUNCIATION TEN YEARS BEFORE, I'VE TALKED TO THESE FAMILIES, AND THAT'S REALLY.

SO AMY MIGHT BE RIGHT.

MAYBE THEY MISINTERPRETED, BUT I DON'T THINK THEY DID.

AND FROM THEIR PERSPECTIVE, THEY DIDN'T.

THEY BELIEVE THAT THE LEGISLATURE, NOT SOME PROCESS OF THIS COMMITTEE AND THAT COMMITTEE, BUT THEY BELIEVE THAT SHE SAID THAT THE LEGISLATURE SHOULD TAKE A VOTE.

THE SENATE TOOK A VOTE, AND THE SENATE PASSED IT AND SENT THAT BILL OVER TO THE HOUSE.

AND SHE PUT IT IN THE DRAWER AND NEVER SAW THE LIGHT OF DAY.

THE OTHER THING I WILL SAY IS THAT PART OF THE PACKAGE THAT THE ANNUNCIATION PARENTS AND OTHERS WERE TALKING ABOUT WAS NOT JUST THE ASSAULT WEAPONS BAN, BUT OTHER THINGS TO GET AHEAD OF AND PREVENT THE THINGS THAT KIDS SEE ONLINE AND OTHER THINGS.

BUT IT'S A MUCH BIGGER ISSUE AND PERM.

AND I WILL ALSO SAY THAT THESE SAME SUBURBAN WOMEN METRO SURGE.

THEY DON'T FORGET ABOUT THAT EITHER.

>> I'M WONDERING ABOUT THE DEBATE LET'S.

LET'S TALK ABOUT THE DEBATE BETWEEN KLOBUCHAR AND DIE BETWEEN KLOBUCHAR AND DEMUTH.

WHAT STOOD OUT.

>> FAIRLY A LARGE AMOUNT OF AGREEMENT.

BOTH CANDIDATES SAID THEY WOULD TURN OVER STATE GOVERNMENT AND BRING ACCOUNTABILITY TO IT.

BOTH SAID THAT THINGS LIKE DATA CENTERS SHOULD BE FOCUSED ON 3 LOCAL CONTROL AND DECISION MAKING.

SO EVEN THOUGH THIS IS A HIGH-PROFILE RACE, THERE WAS A FAIR AMOUNT OF AGREEMENT, WHICH I THINK ALSO REFLECTS KIND OF WHERE MINNESOTANS ARE RIGHT NOW.

RIGHT?

YOU HAVE A GOVERNOR WHO HAS VERY LOW APPROVAL RATINGS.

YOU HAVE PEOPLE READY TO TURN THE PAGE.

AND SO THAT WAS SOMETHING THAT KIND OF CAME THROUGH.

>> HOW ABOUT STYLE VERSUS SUBSTANCE?

BECAUSE MOST OF THE ONLINE REACTION WAS STYLE.

>> LOOK, THERE'S NO QUESTION.

THE PRESENTATIONS WERE A BIT DIFFERENT IN TERMS OF, YOU KOW, ENERGETIC ORRIN TENS ENERGETIC ORRIN T INTENSE VERSUM AND ALOOF.

BUT GOING INTO THIS DEBATE IT WAS ABOUT GOOD LISA DEMUTH CHANGE THE DYNAMIC IN THIS ELECTION.

SHE IS DOWN NINE POINTS.

SHE HAD TO GET A KNOCKOUT BLOW.

SHE DIDN'T DO THAT.

>> OR DID SHE.

NO, I DON'T THINK ANYBODY DID, ESPECIALLY IN THE CHANNEL 9 DEBATE.

BUT HE CHAMBER DEBATE THAT HAPPENED CLOSE TO THIS WAS A LITTLE MORE RELAXED AND LITTLE MORE BACK AND FORTH.

I THINK THAT ONE THAT I FOLLOWED ACTUALLY -- I ENJOYED A LITTLE MORE.

I FELT LIKE THEY WERE A LITTLE MORE PERSONALABLE, AND PROBABLY JUST THE STYLE OF THE DEBATE.

>> BUT A LITTLE MORE BORING, MAYBE, TOO.

HONESTLY.

THE CHAMBER DEBATE?

>> YEAH.

>> I MEAN, THERE WAS NO INTERACTION.

>> I WAS IMPRESSED.

I WAS IMPRESSED WITH BOTH OF THEM.

THAT'S JUST MY OPINION.

BUT THE OTHER THING THAT I THINK -- RIGHT -- I THINK WHAT WAS MISSING WAS, LIKE, DID THIS MOVE THE POLLS.

>> THAT'S RIGHT.

>> AND I DON'T THINK IT DID.

SOMETIMES A DEBATE CAN HAVE A MOMENT.

>> YES.

>> AND I DON'T THINK IT -- A LITTLE DIFFERENT, I FEEL, ABOUT THE U.S.

SENATE RACE AND MAYBE WE'LL GET TO THAT.

>> THE MINNESOTA GOVERNOR'S RACE, SPEAKER DEMUTH HAD TO TRANSFORM HERSELF IN THE MIDDLE OF THE CAMPAIGN.

SO I SEE CAMPAIGN ADS THAT SPEAK TO HER BEING PUBLIC.

NOW TALKING MORE ABOUT HER SUBURBAN ROOTS, AS OPPOSED TO HER RURAL ROOTS.

SO I FEEL SHE'S TRYING TO FOLLOW AND GET MORE IN THE MAINSTREAM, AS OPPOSED TO SENATOR KLOBUCHAR IS, LIKE, YOU KNOW WHO I AM AND YOU KNOW THE KIND OF WORK I DO.

>> PIVOT TO THE U.S.

SENATE RACE.

WHAT'S GOING TO HAPPEN THERE, RIGHT?

ISN'T THIS ONE WHO KNOWS?

IS IT TAFOYA, RIGHT?

IS IT FLANAGAN.

>> THE NATIONAL REPORTERS WERE CALLING US, ESPECIALLY REPUBLICANS IN THE STATE.

THE "WALL STREET JOURNAL" AND THE HILL AND EVERYBODY ELSE LATELY, BECAUSE THIS HAS SLINGSHOTED INTO THE ATIONAL RADAR.

AND I THINK IN PART THAT'S BECAUSE REPUBLICANS NATIONALLY ARE REALIZING IF THEY'RE GOING TO MAINTAIN THE U.S.

SENATE, THEY MAY NEED TO FLIP MINNESOTA.

AND SO NOW THAT'S WHY THE NRSC IS STARTING TO SPEND.

IT IS A MARGIN OF ERROR RACE.

I THINK EVERYBODY AGREES, THIS IS A 4-3, TWO-POINT RACE RIGHT NOW.

I THINK MICHELLE TAFOYA HAS THE MOMENTUM.

I THINK SHE DID A GREAT JOB IN THAT DEBATE.

AND I THINK THE FRAUD AND TIM WALZ IS AN ALBATROSS WITH PEGGY FLANAGAN.

AND IF PEOPLE WANT TO CHANGE OR TURN THE PAGE, I THINK THAT'S NOT GOING TO TURN OUT.

>> T WAS AN AGGRESSIVE PERFORMANCE IN THEIR ONE AND ONLY DEBATE.

>> NO QUESTION.

CLEAR CONTRAST.

REMEMBER, THIS ELECTION IS NOT HAPPENING IN ISOLATION.

THE SENATE RACE IS NOT HAPPENING IN ISOLATION.

IT'S A MIDTERM ELECTION WHERE DONALD TRUMP IS HISTORICALLY UNPOPULAR IN MINNESOTA.

THAT'S GOING TO IMPACT THE RACE.

AND SECOND, AMY KLOBUCHAR IS WING BY WING WINNING BY NINE POINTS.

AND I SEE IT AS ALMOST IMPOSSIBLE TO NOT DRAG PEGGY FLANAGAN ALONG AND HAVE DEMOCRATS TURN.

>> HERE'S WHERE SOME OF THAT -- THE POLLS ALSO SHOW TWO THINGS.

TWO ISSUES ARE TOP OF MIND FOR MILLENNIALS.

ONE IS THE EONOMY.

DOES NOT PLAY WELL.

PLAYS WELL FOR SENATOR KLOBUCHAR AND THE DEMOCRATS.

AND SECOND AND VERY CLOSE IS FRAUD.

AND THERE'S ONE PERSON ON THE BALLOT THAT WAS ON THE WALZ/FLANAGAN TICKET AND AT THE WALZ/FLANAGAN ABLE AND THAT'S PEGGY FLANAGAN.

AND MINNESOTANS, WE USED TO BRAG ABOUT IT ALL OVER.

AND WE HAVE NOT BEEN SPLITTING OUR TICKETS.

THIS IS MILLENNIALS, AN OPPORTUNITY TO GO BACK TO THEIR -- THEIR ROOTS, WHICH IS WE COULD DIVIDE SOME TICKETS HERE.

>> YEAH, I DON'T KNOW.

I THINK THAT'S WISHFUL THINKING.

I WILL SAY THIS.

WE WENT INTO A SITUATION -- PEGGY FLANAGAN WAS TIED BY 20 POINTS.

RIGHT?

SO THERE IS A GROUP OUT THAT POLLSTERS AREN'T TALKING TO.

THEY ARE YOUNG, PROGRESSIVE PEOPLE VOTING FOR PEGGY FWLAN BEGAN.

>> AND METRO SURGE VOTED FOR A UNIVERSE OF VOTERS WHO WILL TURN OUT.

>> WHAT ABOUT LEGISLATURE?

WHAT THE HECK HAPPENS?

SENATE FLIP?

MAYBE NOT THE HOUSE?

THE HOUSE CLOSE, NOT CLOSE?

LET'S GIVE SOME QUICK SUMMARIES ON THAT.

>> ON THE NATIONAL LEVEL, I THINK THE HOUSE PROBABLY GOES DFL.

>> YEP.

>> THE SENATE IS A LITTLE HARDER TO IAGINE, BECAUSE, AGAIN, THE MATH IS MUCH BETTER FOR THE SENATE GOP.

>> THE RURAL SEATS.

>> THE RURAL SEATS.

AND REGIONAL CENTERS.

HOWEVER, AGAIN, GIVEN THE CLIMATE, IT'S HARD -- >> OTHER FORMER SENATOR, WHAT DO YOU THINK?

>> I THINK THE INTURNLS.

I THINK IT COMES DOWN TO THE SUBURBS AGAIN, AND THERE ARE SOME SEATS THAT I'M HEARING ARE IN PLAY THAT I WOULDN'T HAVE THOUGHT WOULD BE IN PLAY.

SO I THINK THAT THIS ISSUE OF THAT THE SUBURBS AND THE WAY THE SUBURBS VOTE IS GOING TO PROBABLY -- ARE IN PLAY AND PROBABLY GIVES THE DEMOCRATS MAYBE A ONE OR TO-PERSON LEAD.

>> YOU'VE GOT TO SEE THAT 3 TURNOUT IN GREATER MINNESOTA AND WATCH THE HOUSE, CHILD AND CUE PACK AND PUTNAM SEATS.

AND IF REPUBLICANS WIN TWO OR THREE OF THOSE, SUBURBS, REGIONAL SUBURBS, BLUE WAVE, GRAB YOUR SURFBOARD.

>> BEFORE YOU GO, THE EARLY VOTING NUMBERS LOOK REALLY BIG.

WHAT DOES IT MEAN?

ANYTHING?

>> I DON'T KNOW THAT IT MEANS ANYTHING.

I THINK MORE AND MORE VOTERS LIKE TO VOTE EARLY.

WE'VE GOTTEN ACCUSTOMED TO IT.

>> GREAT JOB AS ALWAYS.

THANK YOU.

OKAY, KIDS.

SO OFTEN HAPPENS DURING ELECTION SEASON, WE HAVE RUN LONG TONIGHT.

WE WILL BACK NEXT WEEK WITH THE NOVEMBER MIDTERM ELECTIONS.

BUT WE HAVE JUST ENOUGH TIME FOR SOME MUSIC.

WE'RE GOING TO REACH BACK TO AUGUST OF 2007 WHEN BO KINSLER BROUGHT HIS ACOUSTIC PERFORMANCE TO THE "ALMANAC" STAGE.

TAKE A LISTEN, AND WE'LL SEE YOU NEXT TIME.

♪ ♪ NO MORE MEDICINE NO MORE TIME ♪ ♪ THE DOCTOR SAID SHE WOULD BE FINE ♪ ♪ ♪ TELL ME SWEETHEART WHEN YOU LOOK UP AT NIGHT DO YOU THINK ABOUT THE MILLION POINTS OF LIGHT ♪ ♪ BEYOND THEM IS HEAVEN OR SO I'M TOLD IT'S RIGHT ♪ ♪ AND IT'S WHERE MAMA'S GONNA GO WHEN THE ILLNESS WINS THE FIGHT ♪ ♪ NO MORE MEDICINE NO MORE TIME ♪ ♪ THE DOCTOR SAID SHE WOULD BE FINE ♪ ♪ NO MORE MEDICINE NO MORE TIME YOU CAN'T ACCOUNT FOR THE POVERTY LINE ♪ ♪ ♪ I KNOW I TOLD YOU THAT MAMA WOULDN'T DIE -- >>> "ALMANAC" IS MADE POSSIBLE BY MEMBERS OF THIS PUBLIC TELEVISION STATION.

SUPPORT IS ALSO PROVIDED BY GREAT RIVER ENERGY, PROVIDING WHOLESALE POWER TO 1.7 MILLION 3 PEOPLE THROUGH ITS MEMBER-OWNER COOPERATIVES AND CUSTOMERS.

DELTA DENIAL OF MINNESOTA FOUNDATION.

IMPROVING ORAL HEALTH AND HELPING COMMUNITIES THRIVE.

DELTADENIALMN.ORG/AT THIS POINT.

MORE AT EDUCATION MINNESOTA.ORG.

AND VANESSA DAYTON.

THROUGH THE HEALTHCARE FOR ALL MINNESOTANS FUND.

SUPPORTING ACCESSIBLE HEALTHCARE STATEWIDE.

"ALMANAC" IS A PRODUCTION OF MINNESOTA PBS FOR THE STATIONS OF MINNESOTA PUBLIC TELEVISION ASSOCIATION.